The U.S. Role in the Gaza Conflict: A Failure of Intelligence and Policy

 The ongoing conflict in Gaza has drawn global attention, with the United States' involvement playing a significant role. As Israel's principal ally, the U.S. provides substantial military aid, diplomatic backing, and intelligence support. However, recent events have highlighted critical intelligence shortcomings and policy challenges that have exacerbated the situation.



Unwavering U.S. Support for Israel

For decades, the United States has been Israel’s largest supporter, providing approximately $3.8 billion annually in military aid under the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program. This assistance ensures Israel's military superiority in the region. Notably,

Council on Foreign Relations
reports that in October 2023, the Biden administration indicated Israel had nearly six hundred active FMF cases, totaling around $24 billion.

Diplomatically, the U.S. has consistently used its veto power in the United Nations to block resolutions critical of Israel's actions in Gaza. This unwavering support has, at times, emboldened Israeli military operations, even when civilian casualties are reported.

Intelligence Failures and Strategic Miscalculations

U.S. intelligence agencies, including the CIA and NSA, have long monitored Middle Eastern conflicts. However, the surprise attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023, revealed significant intelligence lapses. While initially deemed an Israeli intelligence failure, it became evident that U.S. intelligence also failed to anticipate the attack. Norman Roule, former national intelligence manager for Iran, stated, "We called [Oct. 7] only an Israeli intelligence failure. We should be clear. This was also an American intelligence failure."

Politico

Several critical lapses stand out:

  1. Failure to Prevent Escalations: Despite advanced surveillance capabilities, U.S. intelligence did not foresee the scale and coordination of the October 7 attack, leading to significant casualties and a broader conflict.

  2. Underestimating Hamas: There was a miscalculation regarding Hamas's capabilities and intentions. U.S. intelligence assessments did not anticipate such a sophisticated and large-scale operation.

  3. Ineffective Diplomatic Interventions: The U.S. has historically positioned itself as a broker for peace in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. However, intelligence agencies have struggled to provide actionable strategies for sustainable peace, often focusing on short-term solutions that overlook deeper political grievances.

Consequences of U.S. Policy in Gaza

The combination of unwavering support for Israel and intelligence shortcomings has led to several adverse outcomes:

  • Civilian Casualties: Israeli airstrikes, conducted with U.S.-supplied weaponry, have resulted in significant civilian casualties in Gaza, including women and children.

  • Humanitarian Crisis: The blockade on Gaza, maintained with U.S. backing, has crippled infrastructure, leading to shortages of essential supplies.

  • Global Backlash: The U.S. stance has led to growing international condemnation, damaging its credibility on human rights and weakening its influence in the Middle East.

The Need for Accountability and Policy Reevaluation

To prevent further escalation and promote stability, the United States must reassess its Middle East policy:

  • Conditioning Military Aid: Rather than providing unconditional support, U.S. aid should be tied to human rights benchmarks and accountability for civilian casualties.

  • Strengthening Intelligence Oversight: U.S. intelligence agencies must enhance their capabilities to anticipate and prevent such attacks, focusing on de-escalation strategies rather than reactive measures.

  • Genuine Peace Efforts: A shift from military solutions to diplomatic engagement with all stakeholders, including Palestinian representatives, is crucial for long-term stability.

The tragedy in Gaza is not just a regional issue—it reflects the consequences of U.S. foreign policy decisions and intelligence failures. Without meaningful change, the cycle of violence will persist, leading to further destruction and geopolitical instability. 

Inside the US intel dilemma on Gaza a year after Oct. 7 - POLITICO 

U.S. Aid to Israel in Four Charts | Council on Foreign Relations 

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